On April 22nd, 2012, Rockies left fielder Carlos Gonzalez’s stat line looked like this:
.240 / 0 HR / 5 RBI
Now, 10 days later, it looks like this:
.310 / 7 HR / 23 RBI
This kind of hot streak is not unusual for CarGo. None-the-less, it leads one to wonder what he might be doing differently now than he was to start the season. To this question, anyone who as ever played a season of baseball at any level might respond with the explanation that he is not doing a damn thing differently, that this is just how hitting works. Sometimes you can’t get out, and other times hitting a foul ball feels like an accomplishment.
However, whether intentional or not, one difference in CarGo’s plate appearances since April 22nd is that he is seeing more pitches, and thus getting ahead in counts at a far greater percentage. This tells me that he is being more selective with the pitches he is swinging at. Hitting with a 2-0 or 2-1 count is much easier than the alternative, and those are the kinds of counts CarGo is seeing now, far more so than during the first couple weeks of the season. As a friend of mine would say, “the proof is in the pudding”, so let’s have a look at the numbers.
CarGo’s Plate Appearances: April 6 – April 21
Don’t you worry – I’ll break down what you’re seeing above.
- CarGo had 50 plate appearances from April 6 – 21.
- CarGo saw an average of 3.68 pitches per PA during his first 50 PA’s
- He was hitting ahead in the count when the final pitch was thrown 18 of the 50 PA’s
- He was hitting behind in the count when the final pitch was thrown 19 of the 50 PA’s
- Of the 18 PA’s when CarGo was ahead in the count, he managed 5 hits and 4 walks, putting is batting average when ahead in the count right at .357. He saw an average of 4.66 pitches during these PA’s.
- Of the 19 PA’s when CarGo was behind in the count, he managed 3 hits and (obviously) 0 walks, putting is batting average when behind in the count right at .158. He saw an average of 2.95 pitches during these PA’s.
What does it all mean Baxter!
- CarGo had a .199 higher BA when hitting ahead in the count
- Saw an average of 1.71 pitches more per PA when hitting ahead in count
- Safe to assume that CarGo would produce at a greater rate if during more of his PA’s he was hitting ahead in the count (and thus, seeing more pitches).
CarGo’s Plate Appearances: April 22 – May 1
Once again, allow me to break it dowwwwwn:
- CarGo had 41 plate appearances from April 22 – May 1.
- CarGo saw an average of 3.90 pitches per PA during these 41 PA’s
- He was hitting ahead in the count when the final pitch was thrown 18 of the 41 PA’s
- He was hitting behind in the count when the final pitch was thrown 8 of the 41 PA’s
- Of the 18 PA’s when CarGo was ahead in the count, he managed 7 hits and 5 walks, putting is batting average when ahead in the count right at .538. He saw an average of 4.66 pitches during these PA’s.
- Of the 8 PA’s when CarGo was behind in the count, he managed 0 hits and (obviously) 0 walks, putting is batting average when behind in the count at .000. He saw an average of 3.75 pitches during these PA’s.
Now, everyone knows that a hitter numbers will almost always be better when hitting ahead in the count, than when hitting behind in the count, and the numbers about are consistent with that fact. However, what the numbers above also show is that CarGo has seen more pitches per PA, and thus has been hitting ahead in the count at a higher percentage during this current tear (April 22 – May 1), than during his first 50 PA’s (April 6 – 21).
The takeaway:
When CarGo is selective at the plate, seeing more pitches per PA, the likihood that he will be hitting ahead in the count increases. The more often he hits ahead in the count, the greater his production will be.
Note: Stats Courtesy of Baseball-Reference